Another Bust

To the prophets of doom, death and destruction this hurricane season has been another bust. The last couple years, we have been treated to continued predictions of devastating hurricane after devastating hurricane. Not so this year. There have been thirteen named storms this year, with a whopping four hurricanes. Sure Mexico got hammered by two of them, but it was nowhere near the predictions of destruction.

The global warming crowd has been saying for years that we will have more and more hurricanes. It seems to me (but, I'm not an expert) that we are heading into a cycle where the number and intensity of tropical storm systems decreases.

Happy Hurricane Season

Happy Hurricane Season, everyone. Today is the first day of hurricane season. Again this year, doom, death and destruction are predicted by the media types:
MSNBC; NOAA; Fox News. You get the picture.

The media feeds on disaster. Last year they were disappointed by a slower than normal hurricane season. I am sure they will be disappointed if the season is slower this year.

There a couple things to remember. First, predictions are just that, predictions. They are guesses. Sure, they are not blind guesses. They may be based on facts, patterns, and other things. They are, nonetheless, guesses. Most meteorologists have difficulty predicting what the weather will do tomorrow, much less what will happen during an entire hurricane season. As Marge once told Homer, "You couldn't predict 6:00 at 5:30!"

Second, averages are just that averages. I used to wonder why we never hit the "normal" temperature. It was either hotter or colder than the average. Average is simply what would happen if the same thing happened every year.

I am not advocating a lack of preparedness, but let's keep things in perspective.