Happy Groundhog Day

February 2 is the day that Americans abdicated their meteorological prognostication to a rodent. Despite what the weather is actually like, or what well educated meteorologists say, we drag some poor groundhog from his slumber in Pennsylvania to tell us if spring is "just around the corner," or if we still have "six weeks of winter" left. Come to think of it, after some of the forecasts that I have seen from meteorologists, perhaps the groundhog is more capable than they are.

Happy Hurricane Season

Happy Hurricane Season, everyone. Today is the first day of hurricane season. Again this year, doom, death and destruction are predicted by the media types:
MSNBC; NOAA; Fox News. You get the picture.

The media feeds on disaster. Last year they were disappointed by a slower than normal hurricane season. I am sure they will be disappointed if the season is slower this year.

There a couple things to remember. First, predictions are just that, predictions. They are guesses. Sure, they are not blind guesses. They may be based on facts, patterns, and other things. They are, nonetheless, guesses. Most meteorologists have difficulty predicting what the weather will do tomorrow, much less what will happen during an entire hurricane season. As Marge once told Homer, "You couldn't predict 6:00 at 5:30!"

Second, averages are just that averages. I used to wonder why we never hit the "normal" temperature. It was either hotter or colder than the average. Average is simply what would happen if the same thing happened every year.

I am not advocating a lack of preparedness, but let's keep things in perspective.