Looking at 2012

As the fumes of the 2008 presidential election fade, political junkies are sizing up the potential field for 2012. Barring some major event, Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee. What about the Republicans?

Let's look back before we look forward. Who wins presidential elections for Republicans? Who loses? Since the end of World War II, every senator that the Republicans have nominated have lost: Barry Goldwater (1964), Bob Dole (1996), and John McCain (2008). In fact senators do not do very well in general. Only two senators have been elected since WWII: John F. Kennedy and Obama. I suggest that the Republicans not go down that road, again.

Who wins? Since WWII, Republicans have elected a war hero general (Dwight Eisenhower), two former Vice-Presidents (Richard Nixon and George H. W. Bush), and two governors (Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush). The only Republican governor to lose was Thomas Dewey to Harry Truman in 1948.

Look at the success of Republicans, what can we expect in 2012? War heroes? Unfortunately, there are none the caliber of Eisenhower. Colin Powell (a nominal Republican, at best) lost all credibility with the party when he endorsed Obama. There are simply no other high profile generals out there (sorry, Stormin' Norman Schwarzkopf).

What about former Vice-Presidents? By 2012, the living VPs will include George H. W. Bush, Dan Quayle, and Dick Cheney. Bush has already been President. Dick Cheney has stated he will not run, and with his heart condition probably should not. Quayle has never recovered from his seemingly boyishness in the job of VP. (I would vote for him.) The whole "potatoe" thing has dogged him, despite the fact that Obama had no clue about how states were in the United States. VPs are a no go.

That leaves us with governors. One needs name recoginition. Here are few:

Sarah Palin: She is great, but I think she will suffer the same fate as Dan Quayle. No matter what, she will always be considered a lightweight. This is unfair, as is the case with Quayle, but that is life.

Jeb Bush: I think he would be a stellar candidate and an excellent President, but I think we have Bush-fatigue. I am also not convinced that he is conservative.

Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota): He just seems like a slick used car salesman.

Bobby Jindal (Louisiana): A little young (will be 41 in 2012). A great VP choice, though.

Mit Romney: Where does he stand on the issues today? He is to wishy-washy.

Here is my early pick: Haley Barbour, governor of Mississippi. He has national experience as leader of the Republican Party (like the elder Bush). He handled the Mississippi side of Hurricane Katrina expertly. The only thing against him is his age (he will be 65 in 2012). It may resemble the youthful Clinton versus the aging Dole in 1996. If he were to pick Jindal as VP, that would offset the age difference.

Here is my early pick for 2012: Haley Barbour - Bobby Jindal.